Coordinated pathways for China’s sustainable agrifood system and food security

2025-07-31

Climate change, environmental degradation, and geopolitical conflicts have posed severe challenges to global food security, underscoring the urgent need for a sustainable transformation of the agrifood system. In China, this challenge is compounded by unique national circumstances: the country sustains approximately 21% of the global population with only 7% of the world’s arable land, while facing acute constraints on land and water resources and mounting ecological pressures. Rapid economic growth has reshaped China's agrifood system, but has also introduced complex public health, environmental, and socioeconomic challenges. For example, excessive use of nitrogen fertilizer in agricultural production not only exacerbates greenhouse gas emissions but also leads to non-point source pollution. Meanwhile, the dual burden of malnutrition and obesity imposes significant economic costs at both individual and societal levels. A transformation of China’s agrifood system is urgently needed to achieve a balance between health, environmental sustainability, and socioeconomic benefits.

At the same time, China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. The agricultural sector must therefore contribute to both emission reduction and carbon sequestration, while also ensuring the baseline of food security. Against this backdrop, exploring coordinated and mutually beneficial pathways for sustainable agrifood system transformation and food security holds significant practical value.

Core dilemma in sustainable transformation of the agrifood system

Agriculture is both a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and the cornerstone of food supply. Research estimates suggest that China’s agrifood system contributes roughly 19% of the country’s total emissions. Emission reduction and carbon sequestration in agriculture are thus integral to the nation’s carbon neutrality goals. However, if not carefully managed, mitigation measures may impair food production capacity, creating a policy dilemma. For instance, large-scale conversion of arable land into forested areas may reduce emissions, but it can also result in food shortages and price hikes, threatening food security. The government has emphasized the need to prioritize food security while advancing a green, low-carbon transition in agriculture, calling for efforts to reduce emissions intensity per unit of output.

Meanwhile, the Westernization of dietary patterns and widespread food waste further complicate emission reduction efforts in agriculture. Therefore, how to coordinate greenhouse gas mitigation and food security has become a critical issue demanding urgent attention.

Coordinated solutions: optimizing and transforming the agricultural system

Resolving this dilemma requires a systemic approach that pursues both emission reduction and stable food production. Potential strategies include:

1. Dietary shift: promoting plant-based, healthy diets could reduce agricultural emissions by approximately 46%–51%.

2. Land-use optimization: under the premise of ensuring food production and preserving the arable land “red line,” low-yield and fragile farmland can be converted into forest or grassland to enhance carbon sinks. China has vowed to keep the total area of arable land above the red line of 1.8 billion mu (approximately 120 million hectares)—a policy-defined threshold set to ensure national food security.

3. Technological innovation: for example, precision fertilization has been shown to reduce fertilizer use by 15% while increasing crop yields by around 11%.

In addition, comprehensive modeling tools—such as MAgPIE-China, developed by the research team led by Dr. Wang Xiaoxi—should be employed to quantitatively assess the emission reduction potential and output impact of these measures using micro-level data. By integrating methods from agricultural economics, climate science, public health, and economic modeling, MAgPIE-China represents an innovative modeling framework. It transcends the limitations of single-discipline approaches by dynamically coupling climate scenario simulations, crop growth forecasting, health risk assessment, and economic policy analysis. This full-chain evaluation system—covering production, consumption, economy, environment, and health—serves as a scientific “digital sandbox” to support precise policy formulation and improved governance efficiency.

Strategic policy pathways for sustainable transformation

1. Coordinate multiple goals: develop a comprehensive policy evaluation framework guided by both emission reduction and food security objectives, balancing production needs with decarbonization efforts.

2. Promote healthy diets: encourage the public to adopt healthy and sustainable dietary guidelines, reduce excessive meat consumption and food waste, and foster a culture of green consumption.

3. Reduce food loss and waste: improve grain storage, processing systems, and promote conservation across consumption stages to minimize losses throughout the entire agrifood chain and enhance resource efficiency.

4. Enhance cross-sector collaboration: establish coordination mechanisms across agriculture, environmental protection, and public health departments to jointly plan strategies for agricultural emission reduction and food security, creating synergistic policy outcomes.

The way forward

In short, China must pursue a development path that integrates food security with a green and low-carbon transition. Building a resilient agrifood system is not only essential for safeguarding national food security and rural stability in the new development stage, but will also contribute positively to global food security and climate governance.

Wang Xiaoxi, Huazhong Agricultural University