Feed grain security: A strategic breakthrough amid US-China trade decoupling

2025-07-31

Amidst the ongoing reshaping of global food supply chains, China’s feed grain security is facing a dual challenge: rapidly growing demand and high dependence on imports. In recent years, as food consumption in China has shifted increasingly toward meat, dairy, and eggs, the country’s feed grain consumption exceeded 300 million metric tons in 2024—surpassing demand for staple grains and accounting for over 40% of total grain consumption. This marks a structural contradiction: a surplus of staple grains alongside a shortage of feed grains.

Due to shifts in food demand and temporary reserve policies, domestic grain prices have become inverted relative to global prices. This has triggered a surge in low-cost feed grain imports. In 2024, China’s soybean imports reached 105 million tons—over 60% of global trade—with an import dependence rate of 85%. At the same time, imports of corn, wheat, and barley also rose sharply, each exceeding 10 million tons. The total volume of grain imports reached 158 million tons for the year. Although China’s total grain output has surpassed 700 million tons, the self-sufficiency rate—calculated based on macronutrients such as energy, protein, and fat—has declined to around 70%, and the rate based on virtual cultivated land area has also dropped to approximately 75%.

The decoupling of US-China trade has severely disrupted China’s feed grain import structure. The US has long played a key role in China’s soybean and corn imports, serving as the second-largest grain supplier to China. Roughly 30% of China’s total grain imports come from the US. However, Trade frictions have resulted in significant tariff hikes and skyrocketing import costs. During 2018–2019, the landed cost of US soybeans rose by over 30%, and import volumes dropped by 60%. A shortage in soybean supply quickly impacts the livestock sector, driving up feed prices. Since feed costs make up more than 60% of total livestock production costs, the rise in import prices directly increases production costs downstream, ultimately destabilizing the supply and prices of meat and eggs. More seriously, under the Trump administration, escalating technological sanctions and geopolitical rivalry have further eroded the stability of traditional feed grain supply chains.

Feed grain security has become the core issue within China’s broader food security agenda. Amidst deepening tensions with the US, China must implement a three-pronged strategy—technological substitution, diversified imports, and domestic capacity enhancement—to resolve the twin dilemmas of “soybean dependence” and “hidden reliance on corn”.

First, technological innovation must be used to reduce protein dependency. Reliance on traditional feed ingredients such as soybeans and corn can be systematically reduced through the reform of feed development models. The government should increase investment in feed research and provide greater fiscal support for the development of novel feed sources, including those derived from plants, animals, and microorganisms. Leveraging China’s global leadership in amino acid and feed enzyme industries, it is vital to increase the use of synthetic amino acids, promote precise formulation technologies for diversified, low-protein diets, and thereby reduce dependence on soybean meal and other protein inputs—easing the feed protein supply-demand gap.

Second, it is essential to diversify feed grain import sources to mitigate supply risks. Efforts should be stepped up to establish a more varied supply network with a focus on countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Russia. The Belt and Road Initiative can serve as a platform to deepen cooperation with emerging feed grain producers and promote investment in overseas agricultural bases and logistics infrastructure. Enhancing control over global supply chains and expanding the diversity of import channels will help strengthen the resilience of the national food supply system.

Finally, improving land use efficiency through multiple approaches is crucial. Efforts should focus on vigorously developing grass-fed animal husbandry, forest-based food industries, and aquaculture to boost the supply of non-grain feed resources, thereby easing pressure on feed grain demand. Reconstructing a global food supply chain that is nationally led yet diversified in sources will fundamentally strengthen the strategic foundation of feed grain security.

The intersection of ongoing US-China trade decoupling and structural shifts in food demand has heightened challenges to feed grain security. Strengthening technological innovation, building a diversified supply network, and expanding import channels are essential measures to establish a robust food security defense and ensure stable, secure food provision for the population.

Tian Xu, College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University; Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy