Reflections on safeguarding national food security in the new era

2025-07-31

I. The necessity of safeguarding food security in the new era

1. Pressures from population size and consumption upgrading on the demand side.

Although China’s population has declined for three consecutive years—from 1.412 billion in 2021 to 1.408 billion in 2024—the overall population base remains large. With continued urbanization and the upgrading of household food consumption, demand for grain will continue to rise. In particular, growing consumption of high value-added agricultural products such as meat, eggs, and dairy will indirectly drive up demand for feed grains. Therefore, China is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in grain for a considerable period.

2. Increasing resource and environmental constraints on the supply side.

Although China firmly upholds the red line of 1.8 billion mu (approximately 120 million hectares) of arable land and enforces the “requisition–compensation balance” policy, urbanization and industrialization have increasingly encroached on high-quality farmland. Meanwhile, the quality of supplementary farmland tends to be lower. Problems such as farmland being used for non-agricultural or non-grain purposes—illegal housing construction, growing cash crops and so on—are still widespread. Excessive land use has also led to problems such as soil degradation and environmental pollution. Thus, it is essential to enhance agricultural productivity while ensuring ecological sustainability.

3. Long-term threats from extreme weather and natural disasters.

In recent years, extreme weather events have become more frequent, with global climate change increasing the risks of droughts, floods, and other disasters that directly threaten grain production. For instance, drought in the Yangtze River basin reduced rice yields by 5% in 2022; torrential rains in North China in 2023 damaged over 10 million mu of farmland; and floods in southern China in 2023 led to early rice yield losses of about 5% in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. It is therefore critical to not only improve disaster resilience but also maintain a high level of production capacity for major agricultural products.

4. Strategic risks in the international food market.

Although the global market can supplement domestic supply, it remains highly uncertain due to geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and other factors. As a strategic staple, overreliance on imported grain amplifies systemic risks. With international trade protectionism on the rise in recent years, such risks are likely to persist and grow.

II. Understanding the new requirements for food security in the No. 1 Central Document

1. Stabilizing current production while planning for long-term capacity.

The policy document establishes a dual framework that both secures present output and plans for future growth. To stabilize production, it emphasizes maintaining grain planting area, improving field management, and boosting yields and quality. For long-term capacity, it calls for expanding the scale of the grain yield improvement initiative, promoting the integration and scaling of high-yield and high-efficiency models, and promoting the new project to increase grain production capacity by 100 billion jin (50 billion kg).

2. Emphasizing farmland protection, technological innovation, and equipment upgrading.

The document goes beyond traditional input-driven models to establish a “land–technology–equipment” triad for capacity improvement. Farmland is the foundation of grain production. On top of strict controls on total arable land, the document proposes a “Farmland Protection 2.0” model that includes improved quality assessments and acceptance standards for supplementary land, strict enforcement against illegal land use, and high-quality development of high-standard farmland to ensure a stable land base for grain. In terms of technology and equipment, it stresses the development of “new quality productive forces” in agriculture, focusing on breakthroughs in core technologies, implementing seed industry revitalization, promoting industrialized biological breeding, and driving the high-quality development of agricultural machinery and equipment.

3. Building a diversified food supply system and promoting long-term conservation mechanisms.

The document proposes a concrete path for transforming the food supply system from “flat protection” to “three-dimensional security”. It advocates for a holistic “big agriculture” and “big food” approach, tapping into multiple sources such as marine ranching and “forest grain banks” to meet increasingly diverse dietary demands. At the same time, it emphasizes strong actions to reduce food waste, improve incentive and restraint mechanisms, and promote healthy eating habits—ultimately fostering a long-term culture of conservation that strengthens national food security.

III. Policy recommendations for sustained food security

1. Strengthening production foundations through an integrated “land–technology–infrastructure” system.

Maintain stable grain planting areas by strictly enforcing the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land. Incentive policies—such as direct grain subsidies, improved seed subsidies, and dynamic subsidies for large-scale grain growers—should be used to boost farmers’ motivation to plant grain. At the same time, strengthen both the construction and management of high-standard farmland to improve arable land quality and productivity potential. Step up renovation of medium- and low-yield fields to strengthen the basic fertility and productivity of farmland.

Accelerate agricultural science and technology development, with coordinated efforts to advance key areas such as seed industry revitalization and industrialized biological breeding. Promote smart machinery and precision agriculture to foster new quality productive forces, and improve agricultural extension systems to ensure rapid adoption of new technologies and varieties.

Improve agricultural infrastructure by upgrading irrigation and drainage systems, boosting disaster resilience, and investing in water conservancy projects to ensure stable yields in both drought and flood conditions. Strengthen post-harvest storage and logistics to reduce losses, and promote grain-saving technologies to enhance storage and transport efficiency.

2. Leveraging support policies to establish a “returns protection–interest compensation–risk prevention” mechanism.

Strengthen income guarantees for grain farmers by improving the minimum purchase price system for rice and wheat to ensure stable returns. Minimum prices should be adjusted in line with market dynamics and production costs. Provide greater support to large grain growers and new business entities such as family farms through fiscal subsidies and tax incentives to encourage scale and yield growth.

Enhance compensation mechanisms for major grain-producing regions by increasing fiscal transfers, ensuring adequate financial resources for production, and prioritizing policy support for these areas. The central government should also build mechanisms to align the interests of production and consumption regions through coordinated planning and market mechanisms.

Promote agricultural insurance by expanding coverage, improving compensation levels, and lowering risks for farmers. Encourage innovation in insurance products to meet diverse needs and enhance regulatory and service systems for a well-functioning agricultural insurance market.

3. Advancing both supply expansion and loss reduction to achieve dual breakthroughs.

Expand food sources by adopting a “big food” approach and tapping into a wide range of food resources. In addition to traditional crops, focus on diversified supplies of vegetables, fruits, meat, and aquatic products. Explore the use of non-arable land resources such as saline-alkali soil and coastal flats through combined technological and engineering measures to improve resource efficiency.

Deepen international cooperation by actively participating in global food security governance, trade, and production coordination to diversify import sources and stabilize supply. Strengthen monitoring and early warning systems for international grain markets to mitigate external shocks.

Reduce food losses by improving post-harvest handling, including storage, transport, and processing. Promote technologies and equipment that minimize grain loss. Raise consumer awareness to promote food conservation and environmental responsibility. Encourage behavior such as “clean plate” dining to reduce waste at the consumption level.

Li Gucheng, College of Economics and Management / Institute of Digital Agriculture, Huazhong Agricultural University